May 21, 2022 10:17 pm

MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, May 6): Weather Causing Issues on Friday

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Picks

Gerrit Cole ($9,700) New York Yankees (-231) vs. Texas Rangers

Not much needs to be said about Cole, who’s scored nearly 60 points between his last two outings. He should always be considered in any slate where he’s eligible, with today’s being no different. He and the Yankees are massive favorites at home against the Rangers, who are implied for just 2.8 runs.

It’s certainly an above-average matchup for Cole, with Texas having a relatively poor offense. Their weighted runs-created plus (wRC+) is 91 on the season. For those unfamiliar with the metric, 100 is average, so any number below that represents an offense in San Francisco 49ers Jerseys the bottom half of the MLB in total offensive output.

Cole trails only Scherzer in both strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. He has a much better matchup, though, and comes in $800 cheaper on DraftKings. He deserves a look in all contest types, even if he comes in at relatively high ownership. It shouldn’t be too outlandish, given all of the top-tier options on today’s slate. Cole leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for median and ceiling projection.

Editor’s note: This game has been postponed.

Max Scherzer ($10,500) New York Mets (-140) at Philadelphia Phillies

Scherzer has the best individual pitching metrics on the slate, coming in as the leader in SIERA, strikeout rate, and swinging-strike rate. However, he has a more difficult matchup in the Phillies, who feature a 107 wRC+ score — 11th in the MLB.

As frequently mentioned in this space, good pitching has the advantage over good hitting, but we’d ideally roster good pitchers against bad hitting when we can. While that does make Scherzer a solid contrarian option, he’s certainly not as safe a pick as Cole. If their salaries were flipped, it would be a much tougher decision, but Cole is the better straight-up play.

This game does carry some weather risk too, which should keep ownership down on Scherzer. The likeliest outcome is rain coming in early, though, so it’s unlikely this one starts but gets delayed. I certainly wouldn’t roster Scherzer unless I can keep an eye on things right up until lock, but if this one starts (which looks unlikely), it should play through.

Of course, we do get to roster two pitchers on DraftKings. Weather non-withstanding, lineups with both Scherzer and Cole will be less popular than their individual ownership projections would suggest, given the high cost of fitting them both. It’s an intriguing tournament option if you can find the cheap hitters to get there.

Scherzer trails only Cole in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for median and ceiling.

Editor’s note: This game has also been postponed.


MLB DFS Value Pick

Shane Bieber ($8,700), Cleveland Guardians (+125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Bieber’s salary has dropped to its lowest level since opening day, Hoka Shoes despite a solid 22.95-point performance in his last outing. That makes him a strong value play today, as he trails only Cole and Scherzer in median projection in both projection systems. He’s noticeably cheaper than both options and is sure to be a popular SP2 in lineups featuring one of them.

Bieber had a somewhat rough start to the season but has seen each of his starts increase in length as the season goes on. That’s a good sign following two injury-plagued seasons. It’s not an especially difficult matchup with the Blue Jays, who rank outside the top 10 in wRC+ and are implied for just 3.6 runs.

This is another game with some weather concerns, though any rain that comes is expected to be lighter. It’s tremendous weather for pitchers if the game gets played, but it does carry some risk. That makes Bieber a scary option for cash games but boosts his appeal for tournaments. The bad-hitting weather helps his upside, and the PPD risk should limit ownership.

Bieber has plenty of upside — even as an underdog — given his strikeout rate and ability to work deep into games. He’s a solid play for both cash games and tournaments. He’s also pitching at the best pitchers park of the top options, with a 66 Park Factor.


MLB DFS GPP Picks

Yu Darvish ($9,400) San Diego Padres (-129) vs. Miami Marlins

On a smaller slate, Darvish would be an obvious choice and one of the most popular options. On today’s massive 13-game slate, he could get lost in the shuffle a bit. Darvish checks all the boxes we’re looking for from a pitcher. His team is favored, with Miami implied for just 3.2 runs.

Other than a historically bad fantasy game against the Giants, Darvish has been a solid pitcher this season, with at least 16 points in all his other starts. He has strong numbers, with a 28% strikeout rate and a 3,53 SIERA. That latter mark is much lower than his 4.23 ERA, suggesting Darvish has been a bit unlucky as well. Darvish is also the only pitcher mentioned so far who has a favorable Park Factor and Weather Rating score in our models.

While Darvish doesn’t have quite the same upside as our other top options if he comes in with low ownership projections, he’s worth a look for GPPs.

Kevin Gausman ($10,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-148) at Cleveland Guardians

Gausman isn’t projecting quite as well as his opposite number, Bieber of the Guardians. However, he is favored in this one, with Cleveland implied for just three runs. Skechers Shoes Outlets Gausman has near-identical secondary metrics as Bieber, with his SIERA being exactly the same and a strikeout rate just a percentage point behind Bieber.

A combination of name recognition and higher salary means Gausman likely be the less popular option in this game, though. That makes him a solid leverage play for GPPs. He wouldn’t fit into any of my tighter builds, but he deserves some exposure if multi-entering.

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